I hear a lot of talk from people about the fact that the traditional ‘dumb phone’ will eventually be deleted from the market in favor of smartphones. While this is a valid point of view, I don’t entirely agree.
Sure, smartphone hardware and software are getting cheaper and easier for manufacturers to produce, but I think there will always be a place for non-smartphone devices in the market. Simplicity is key here - not everyone needs the full features of a smartphone, and while that remains true non-smartphones will always be produced, regardless of how cheap it becomes to make smartphones.
I have seen a trend over time of a general rise in the technology level even in cheap handsets, which is an obvious repercussion from the reduced cost of the components that make them. I wholeheartedly agree that even cheap handsets will eventually come with big, high-resolution screens and other treats, but I doubt that all handsets will become smartphones. The PIM features in non-smartphones have come a long way, and have reached a point where they will accommodate most users; transitioning to a smartphone user interface will do nothing but add a level of complexity that will ultimately drive the market away.
I am all for the advancement of technology, but only if it suits the needs of the consumer. There will have to be a radical change in the usability of smartphones before they truly become mainstream, perhaps the introduction of a ‘dumb’ mode that removes things like the ability to install new applications and the more complex PIM functionality would be beneficial. For the foreseeable future though, I think there will still be the constant flow of new non-smartphone devices.
I can see how people can imagine the loss of the ‘dumbphone’ - I mean, you could even say that we already had the smartphone even back when we had monochrome screens. I do think you’ve hit the nail on the head with saying that smartphones will take over as long as it has a ‘dumb’ mode - I think that already exists, since almost every phone in the market now comes with a cd and pc sync cable, but not using these won’t take away from the basic, ‘dumb’ functions of the handset. I think that the smartphone has already taken over, its just that most of the phones available now are in denial
I don’t think that most current phones are smartphones, by any stretch. I do believe that most/all future phones will eventually be smartphones. The trick is just that many (most?) of them will run simplistic shells that dumb them down. What makes a smartphone is the OS and the openness of the platform.
Consider the upcoming BlackBerry application for Windows Mobile. It turns a WM5/6 device into a BlackBerry with the full BlackBerry UI. Now dumb that down a bit, and you could easily have the SE or Nokia S40 UI running on top of WM6 or S60 or something.
In the end, it will be cheaper for manufacturers and developers alike to support fewer platforms. Dropping support for the proprietary ones will make huge sense.
@Pat - A smartphone, like Michael says, is defined more by the ‘open’ nature of the platform, so I don’t know if you could call the old monochrome phones smart, but I see your point.
@Michael - I agree that it makes perfect sense to have a focused platform strategy, but as my last paragraph and your comment says, the smartphone platform needs to have a ‘dumb’ mode. The UI will still match market needs, but the platform can progress.